WHAT DOES THE OCTOBER 5 LANDSLIDE VICTORY for Elaine O’Neal
for Mayor and DeDreana Freeman for City Council Ward 1 tell us about the
current state of Durham politics?
Andrea Benjamin, associate professor at the University of
Oklahoma, has spent lots of time collecting data on elections in Durham, NC.
She’s currently working on a project about coalitions, electoral
representation, and policy representation in local politics based on data she
obtained in Durham. Benjamin conducted research in Durham when she was a member
of the political science faculty at the University of North Carolina at Chapel
Hill.
Her first book, Racial Coalition Building in Local
Elections: Elite Cues and Cross-Ethic Voting, shows that Blacks and Latinos
rely on endorsements from co-ethnic leaders when casting their votes.
Benjamin says although it is only a primary, the landslide
victories of Elaine O’Neal for Mayor and DeDreanna Freeman for City Council Ward
1 is making a powerful statement.
“Without having exit poll data from the election yesterday,
I am hesitant to speculate on why people voted the way they did,” Benjamin
said. ‘What I can say is that in both 2015 and 2017, I did collect exit poll
data during the General Elections and in both elections, voters were very aware
of which candidate received which endorsements and that awareness was
positively associated with vote choice.”
Bill Bell was overwhelmingly re-elected in 2015. At the
city council level, Steve Schewel was endorsed by People’s Alliance, The Durham
Committee on the Affairs of Black People, The Friends of Durham, and Indy Week.
Jillian Johnson and Charlie Reece were endorsed by People’s Alliance and Indy
Week.
In the general election, Schewel was re-elected, and Johnson and Reece were elected to the council for the first time.
· Steve Schewel, won re-election and also received the largest number of votes (15,011 or 28.07%).
· Jillian
Johnson, won a seat on the council and received the second most votes in the
election (12,497 votes or 23.37%).
· Charlie
Reece, won a seat on the council with the third most votes (9,680 votes or
18.10%).
· Mike
Shiflett, did not win a seat on the council. He received 7,376 votes
(13.79%).
· Ricky
Hart did not win a seat on the council. He received 5,844 votes
(10.93%).
· Robert
Stephens did not win a seat on the council. He received 2,925 votes
(5.47%).
In
the 2017 Ward elections, there was a clear slate from the People’s
Alliance: Steve Schewel for Mayor, DeDreana Freeman (W1), John Rooks,
Jr. (W2) and Vernetta Alston (W3). While the Durham Committee on the
Affairs of Black People and the Friends of Durham backed the same slate: Farad
Ali for Mayor, Cora Cole-McFadden (W1), Middleton (W2), and Shelia
Huggins (W3). The Indy Week backed Schewel for Mayor, Freeman (W1), Middleton (W2) and Alston (W3). These
were the four candidates elected to office in 2017.
· Farad
Ali did not win the election (14,326 votes or 40.13%).
· Steve
Schewel won (21,252 or 59.53%).
· Cora
Cole-McFadden did not win the election (15,716 votes or 45.40%).
· DeDreanna
Freeman won the election (18,847 votes or 54.45%).
· Mark-Anthony
Middleton won the election (19,136 votes or 57.04%).
· John
Rooks, Jr., did not win the election (14,334 votes or 42.73 %).
· Vernetta
Alston, won the election (21,204 votes or 62.46%).
· Shelia
Huggins did not win the election (12,643 votes or 37.25%).
The
vote for the top six candidates in the 2019 Primary were:
Jillian Johnson 10,461 - 21.33%
Charlie
Reece
9,675 - 19.73%
Javiera
Caballero 9,313 - 18.99%
Joshua
Gunn 6,675 - 13.61%
Jacqueline Wagstaff 3,709 - 7.56%
Daniel
Meier
2,954 - 6.02%
The general election results were:
Jillian
Johnson 19,857 - 20.65% (Re-elected)
Charlie
Reece
19,532 - 20.31% (Re-elected)
Javiera
Caballero 19,023 - 19.78% (Re-elected
Joshua
Gunn
18,631 - 19.38%
Daniel
Meier
9,426 - 9.80%
Jacqueline Wagstaff 9,354 - 9.73%
In 2019, the People’s Alliance and the Indy Week endorsed Johnson, Reece, and Caballero. The Durham Committee on the Affairs of Black people and the Friends of Durham endorsed Gunn. The Friends of Durham also endorsed Meier.
"Take note that Joshua Gunn missed it by 392 votes," Bejamin said. "That is a very close margin."
The 2021 Primary results showed a large margin for Elaine O’Neal, Freeman, and Middleton, who were endorsed by the Durham Committee on the Affairs of Black People, the Friends of Durham, and the Indy Week. Middleton was also endorsed by the People’s Alliance.
Mayor
Elaine
O'Neal
13,586 - 67.96%
Javiera Caballero 4,925 - 24.63%
Ward 1
DeDreana Freeman 13,468 - 69.61%
Marion T. Johnson 5,189
- 26.82%
Ward 2
Mark-Anthony
Middleton 16,255
- 85.91%
Sylvester Williams 1,718 - 9.08%
“I believe endorsements can be a useful tool to help voters make informed decisions. Again, without exit poll data, it’s hard to say if people were ‘using’ the endorsements or not as they cast their ballots,” Benjamin said. “It could also be that voters are very tuned into this election cycle, and they preferred these candidates because of their issue positions on things like policing and the future of Durham.”
Bejamin says the results are surprising in the
margin between the candidates, which has been closer in recent elections.
“I think the General Election will see increased turnout as each candidate works to mobilize their supporters,” Benjamin said. “Perhaps some people didn’t vote in the primary because they thought their vote didn’t matter, but it does. I expect things to get intense over the next month.”
No comments:
Post a Comment